Material Surfaces Where Average Fit Can Hide a Selection Error
Abstract
A response surface can be useful for screening material alternatives while remaining an imperfect basis for selecting an engineering design. This article estimates an additive strength model using 1,030 public concrete records and compares it with curvature and duplicate-record sensitivities. Ingredient quantities and log curing age explain a substantial share of the observed variation, but the estimates remain conditional associations across released mixtures. The methodological synthesis connects metamodel accuracy with contextual selection, finite computation, constrained search, and efficient adaptation. The paper argues that prediction error should be evaluated where it changes a design comparison, while feasible ingredient combinations and physical mechanisms remain separate requirements.
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